Detonating the Gaesung Contact Centre: What is the intention of North Korea?

Early on June 17th local time, North Korea explosively demolished the Gaeseong inter-Korean joint contact point building, It announced that it would relocate its military units to the monitoring posts in the mountains.

In fact, it can be said to be the destruction of the 9/19 military agreement, which was born as a result of two inter-Korean summits in 2018.

Cheongwadae (the residence of the head of state), the Ministry of National Defense, and the Ministry of Unification responded immediately in strong tone. The chief of the National Communications Office of the Cheongwadae, Yoon Do-han, warned that, “The recent series of actions by the North has not been helpful to the North, and the consequences of all this has to be entirely the responsibility of the North.”

At this point in time, North Korea predicted such behaviour and deteriorated the inter-Korean relations with experts.

Moon Jae-in government pressure

Jeong Young-tae, chair professor of Dongyang University, was quoted in BBC Korea saying that the North Korean provocation was “to pressure the Moon Jae-in government.”

“For the North, the military agreement doesn’t mean much. It’s just a piece of paper that they don’t need,” he said. “The North Korean flyers are just a trigger, and eventually the Moon Jae-in government pushes them to move as they want.” said.

Then, what does North Korea want? Professor Jung said, “It is breaking the ROK-US alliance.”

“The goal is for the progressive government to adopt an anti-American policy to break the alliance,” he said. It is unthinkable to break the ROK-US alliance with the Korean people, but he said, “North Korea has not taken this as an impossible thing.”

Doo-yeon Kim, senior researcher at the International Crisis Group (ICG), also wrote on Twitter that it was oppressing Korea . “North Korea is threatening and coercing South Korea to stop leaflet spraying and US-ROK military training and to help the United States ease sanctions against North Korea,” he said.

Next, “Why then? Because South Korea has already promised this. At the 2018 Panmunjom Summit, the leaders of the two countries met and promised not to do any hostile acts against each other anywhere in the sky, sea, or land. North Korea promised to South Korea. “We are telling you to fulfill this.”

What North Korea wants is cash

Prof. Andrei Lankov, Kookmin University, said that what North Korea eventually wants is money. “What North Korea wants is not the symbolic exchange and cultural exchange currently being offered by the Korean government, but the transfer of capital.”

“President Moon Jae-in wants to interact with North Korea, but eventually wants to do it in a way that the US doesn’t like. But it’s a game and a game that is worthless to North Korea,” said Professor Lankov.

He cited as an example the strengthening of green cooperation between Northeast Asia and the North and South in the field of fine dust and forests presented by the Moon Jae-in government. Together, they violate the United Nations sanctions against North Korea and provoke a negative reaction from the United States.”

North Korea’s position has been waiting since 2018, but there has been no progress. No. The goal is to teach them that they can also make them sleeplessly and sleeplessly.”

Chung Bak (Korean name Park Jung-hyun), who recently published’Non-coming Kim Jong-un’, also saw the economic aspect of the Brookings Research Institute.

Kim Jong-un said, “The economic policy proposed by the North Korean leader of state affairs was not successful, and emphasized ideology, emphasized bloodline, and said, “It is threatening military action and threats . ”

He continued, “The North Korean economy is tumultuous and the people are suffering, drawing attention to external ‘hostile forces’ and leading nationalism.” In this regard, he said, “these statements will continue.”

Covid-19 also influences the point of view

Prof. Young-Tae Chung evaluated that the new Coronavirus Infectious Disease (Corona19) affected BBC North Korea’s provocation period. It is an interpretation that there will be a hidden intention to turn the gaze to the’external enemy’ in the midst of confusion even as the spread continues inside North Korea.

Prof. Jeong explained, “Anyway, even inside North Korea, the spread of Corona 19 will cause internal solidarity and dissatisfaction.”

North Korean experts Lee Min-young also said, “Domestic, whatever the reason, it seems to be a chance to promote the unity of the people and strengthen loyalty to Kim Jong-un.” , Seems to be making an opportunity to complete.”

Prof. Lankov and Corona19 also seemed to have influenced North Korea’s’point of view’ to some extent. He said, “Prior to North Korea, I waited for South Korea to persuade the United States to alleviate sanctions against North Korea. But when I came now, I realized that the expectation was groundless.” But it is possible to hypothesize that Covid-19 could be another reason I saw.

“I chose now, not March or April, when world politics is paralyzed in March and April, and now, as all the news was about Covid-19, the movement of world politics is being revived. At this point, It could be considered as creating an issue.”

No military provocations

On the other hand, the dominant opinion is that North Korea’s hidden intentions will not be a military provocation to the extent that the ROK military must retaliate.

North Korean experts, Lee Min-young, who have analyzed the North Korean media for more than 10 years by the US government and others, noticed that they watched North Korea’s ‘rhetoric’  and warned that North Korea decided to take action after seeing the actions of the South Korean government.

The expert said, “It is of course possible to lead to a border area, the West Sea, a military event, or a nuclear test,” but emphasizes the conditionality of investigating some North Korean media. “It suggests that we will not do as much as we warn.” said.

Researcher Doo-yeon Kim also said that the bombing of the inter-Korean contact office destroyed the symbolic place of inter-Korean relations, but it was not enough to provoke South Korea’s military action. He predicted, “North Korea seems likely to do something similar (provocative) in the future, but it will not be enough for South Korea to retaliate militarily.”