China and India: what’s behind the escalating tension that left 20 soldiers dead in shock at the border

The causes of the confrontation between the Asian giants in the Himalayas and how the situation can develop.

India and China , the two most populous nations in the world – with the two largest armies (both nuclear-weapons armed) – have been in conflict for weeks in the Himalayas.

But the crisis escalated on Tuesday, June 16.  The Indian army says three of its soldiers, including a colonel, were killed in hand-to-hand combat with Chinese troops. On Tuesday night in local time, the Indian press reported that the army had lost 20 men and “inflicted 43 casualties on the Chinese.”

China has yet to confirm the death toll and injuries.

They were the first deaths in more than four decades in the border dispute claimed by the two Asian giants.  How did the most recent confrontation come about and what is behind it?

Accumulation of tensions

Tuesday’s clash area is right on the border – called the Royal Control Line or LAC (the acronym in English) – between the two countries in the Galwan valley in Ladakh. This occurs in the disputed region of Kashmir, which is highly militarized and the point of frequent conflicts because of competing territorial claims between India, Pakistan and China. In the Galwan valley, many incidents between Indian and Chinese patrols have been recorded. Since April, the two sides have accumulated tanks, artillery and troops in the vicinity of the valley.

Ground forces are supported by attack helicopters and fighter planes.

In early May, tensions rose after the Indian press said Chinese forces had set up tents, dug trenches and transported heavy equipment several kilometres into what India considered its territory. The move came after India built a road several hundred kilometres to connect a high-altitude airbase that reactivated in 2008. India blamed China for the situation. “During the ongoing process in the Galwan valley, a violent clash took place last night with victims on both sides,” says a statement from the Indian Army.

China, for its part, asked India “not to take unilateral action or create problems”, and China’s Foreign Ministry spokesman, Zhao Lijian, said it was India that crossed the border, “provoking and attacking the Chinese people, resulting in serious physical confrontation between border forces on both sides “.

What is the background to this dispute?

Several factors have led to this confrontation, but competing strategic objectives are at its root.  India and China share a border covering more than 3,440 km and territorial claims along it.  Since the 1950s, China has refused to recognize the borders drawn during the British colonial era. In 1962, this led to a brief and brutal war, which resulted in a humiliating military defeat for India.

Proposals and counterproposals

Since that war, India and China have accused each other of invasion.

India says China is occupying 38,000 km² of its territory – which is in the area where the current confrontation is taking place. China claims the entire state of Arunachal Pradesh, which it calls Southern Tibet.  During the 1962 war, the Chinese army was able to overcome Indian outposts without much resistance.

There are also several other regions where the two countries have different opinions about the location of the border.

The Royal Control Line is poorly demarcated and is located in Ladakh, where there are many rivers, lakes and snow caps – meaning that the line that separates soldiers can change and they often approach the confrontation.

Several rounds of negotiations over the past three decades have failed to resolve border disputes, but have maintained a degree of stability in the region.

Building infrastructure

To support troops stationed on such hostile terrain and without inhabitants, the two sides are building a railway and road infrastructure.  Under Narendra Modi, India has started building dozens of roads along the LAC and is running to meet the December 2022 deadline to complete these projects. One of these roads goes to the Galwan valley, where the current conflict took place.

China has also been building roads and infrastructure in an area strategically important to Beijing, as it connects its Xinjiang Province to western Tibet.

Global power vs. regional power

The Chinese economy is almost five times that of India. China finds itself competing to replace the USA as the dominant world power.

India, on the other hand, holds visions of a multipolar world order, where it hopes to play a significant role. Indian politicians and analysts sometimes speak as if India and China are equal powers, without acknowledging China’s massive advances. In August 2019, India took the controversial decision to end the limited autonomy of Jammu and Kashmir, and reshaped the region’s map – an action that China denounced as hostile. This created the new Ladakh, administered by the federal government, which included Aksai Chin, an area that India claims but controlled by China. The confrontation occurred in that area.

Pakistan Factor

One of the roots of India’s distrust lies in the relationship between China and Pakistan, longtime allies. The Indian government accuses the Chinese of helping Pakistanis obtain nuclear technology and missiles.

The top summit of India’s Hindu nationalist government BJP also talks about the recovery of Pakistan-administered Kashmir.

A strategic route, the Karakoram Highway, passes through this area that connects China to Pakistan. Beijing has invested around US $ 60 billion (US $ 314 billion) in Pakistan’s infrastructure – the so-called China Economic Corridor in Pakistan (CPEC, for its acronym in English) – as part of its Belt and Road Initiative, and the highway is the key to transporting goods to and from the port of Gwadar in southern Pakistan. The port gives China a foothold in the Arabian Sea.

India fears that in the near future Gwadar will be used to support Chinese naval operations in the Arabian Sea.

Tibet issue

For its part, China suspects the relationship between the Indian government and the Tibetan leader, Dalai Lama. The spiritual leader fled to India after the failed uprising in 1959 in Tibet.

India refused to recognize the Tibetan government in exile, but its leader was among the guests during Prime Minister Modi’s inauguration ceremony in 2014.

China does not take India’s geopolitical aspirations seriously and sees it as a country that could collaborate with its traditional rivals like the USA, Japan and Australia.

India has also changed the rules to ban Chinese companies from taking control of broken Indian companies due to the losses caused by the pandemic.

But China remains India’s second largest trading partner – as with most countries, China enjoys a huge trade surplus with India.

Negotiations

In the recent past, border patrols from both armies have clashed hundreds of times each year.

In 2013 and 2017, this led to serious impasses that ended after weeks of political and diplomatic maneuvering.

After the last standoff in 2017, Modi and Chinese President Xi Jjinping held two informal summits to resolve their differences.

India and China are holding talks to defuse the situation – military officials met on June 6 and again on Tuesday after the incident.

The most recent meeting was held at patrol point 14 in Galwan, close to where the deaths occurred.

This confrontation will undoubtedly increase the mistrust between the two nations, which may require political intervention between the summits to prevent the situation from getting out of control.